da jogodeouro： Chelsea are just one point away from winning the Premier League title. Perhaps not in numerical terms, but seeing off another member of the chasing pack by drawing against Arsenal this weekend will leave no one left to catch the Blues before the end of May.
da fazobetai： Sure, wins for the rest of the top six will reduce the deficit, but the likes of Manchester City and Manchester United making gains will only further intensify the competition throughout the rest of the mini-league at the division’s summit, putting more pressure on those directly below the west Londoners as the fear of missing out on Champions League qualification creeps in.
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The majority of evidence points to a Chelsea win. They boast home advantage, an impeccable record against the Gunners in recent seasons, and a run of just two non-wins in their last 17 Premier League games. Arsenal, meanwhile, travel to Stamford Bridge off the back of a shock 2-1 defeat to Watford amid a host of injury problems, with Olivier Giroud potentially sidelined and Francis Coquelin their only fit recognised midfielder. Arsene Wenger will be forced to field an ad hoc engine room.
Likewise, it’s Arsenal who must take the game to the opposition in order to keep the dying embers of their title bid flickering away. The Gunners are a great attacking side but pursuing a win on the front foot only plays to Chelsea’s strengths under Antonio Conte – a well-organised and physical back seven, in addition to a front three that hits with real speed and power on the counter-attack.
Yet, one Chelsea weakness has gone under the radar this season; despite sitting nine points clear at the Premier League’s peak, the Blues are yet to win a London derby by more than one goal and are yet to score more than twice in any of the six they’ve taken part in this season, even though the capital cabal includes a West Ham side that has jumped from disaster to disaster, and a Watford team continually fluctuating between relegation and Europa League-contending form.
To give credit where it’s due, Chelsea have beaten both in the Premier League this season – although they lost to the Hammers in the EFL Cup. Nonetheless, the statistics show there is a clear trend; in London derbies, Chelsea produce fewer goals, fewer attempts at goal, a worse passing accuracy and fewer dribbles than their Premier League average this term, whilst they concede more goals and allow more attempts at Thibaut Courtois.
Of course, London derbies always carry that element of unpredictability as emotions run high, and therefore are often tougher games. Likewise, Chelsea’s record in them this season is by no means disastrous, winning three, drawing one and ranking second throughout the top flight’s London derby League.
But the significance of the correlative decline should not be understated, considering Chelsea rank first for dribbles per match, have conceded the fewest goals, and rank third-bottom for shots conceded throughout the top flight this term. As already mentioned, a solid defence and counter-attacking dribbles are crucial parts of how Chelsea play – so failing to produce to the same consistency in London derbies could cost them dearly.
Furthermore, the only team to trump Chelsea in the London derbies this season is, coincidentally, Arsenal. And perhaps even more significantly, the Gunners are just one of three teams to beat the pace-setters this season alongside north London rivals Spurs and Tuesday night’s opponents Liverpool. Admittedly, however, Arsenal’s record against the rest of the top six this term is a lot less inspiring ahead of Saturday’s trip to Stamford Bridge.
Curiously, that 3-0 defeat in September was the turning point for Chelsea. With the result already settled, Antonio Conte used the last half hour as a testing ground for the 3-4-3 formation that quickly transformed the Blues into out-and-out title favourites. Conte used the system during his affluent spell at Juventus and despite their lack of experience with it, Chelsea instantly looked more solid with a more logical flow going forward – even if Arsenal were operating at half capacity with the points already won. The Italian fielded the same formation in the following game, a 2-0 win over Hull, and Chelsea haven’t looked back since.
Yet, this Chelsea side is by no means invincible. Spurs proved that a few weeks ago and Liverpool exposed similar issues on Tuesday night, albeit only able to claim a draw at Anfield. Both capitalised on the only notable weakness in the Chelsea backline – the aerial pocket between Cesar Azpilicueta and Victor Moses, both whom measure in at under six foot.
Arsenal probably don’t have the height in attack to endlessly target that area, especially if Giroud is absent, but it proves Chelsea aren’t flawless. And just as Conte’s first meeting with Arsenal helped inspire a tactical innovation that has thus far proved the only real difference in the title race, the second has just as much a chance of proving his and the Blues’ undoing.